CAP hammers Transit Connect Electric residuals
CAP has forecast a residual value of 20 per cent for the Azure Dynamics Transit Connect Electric after three years/30,000 miles. With a basic price of £39,999 new, the van is reckoned to retain a value of £8,000. To put this in perspective a long-wheelbase Transit Connect Trend diesel equivalent has a residual value forecast of 33 per cent.This reflects what can only be described as very conservative views in the trade over the future prospects for used electric vans. The announcement is published in the latest edition of CAP Monitor – Future Residual Values for Commercial Vehicles, the independent industry benchmark for forecast used prices.
In the light commercials market, CAP’s opinion has been that the commercial viability of electric vans remains fraught with uncertainty, especially for second users. One of the major issues has been the still largely unknown potential for the need to replace expensive battery packs.
The prospects of persuading second users to pay a premium for nascent technology remain slight, in CAP's view. Commercial Vehicle Monitor editor, Tim Cattlin, said: “We have no wish to dampen enthusiasm for any new development in the light commercial vehicles sector, but at this point the prospects for all-electric vans are fraught with difficulties, despite the clear operating advantages of using one for specific kinds of work.“We are looking to the future and a typical trader's willingness to risk purchasing such a vehicle for stock. At this point it seems unlikely that the risk around battery life alone will be considered reasonable until a real track record of reliability has been established, along with a clear understanding of battery longevity.
“Another serious sticking point is the risk to an end user of having to spend several thousand pounds additionally on a replacement battery pack on a five to 10 year old vehicle.
“Our current residual value forecasts are therefore conservative, having taken all of the relevant factors into account. However, our minds remain open and as more market experience is gained the industry can rest assured we are closely monitoring for everything that can be learned about this new emerging sector.
“We also recognise that although these vehicles are likely to cause sleep loss for a fleet manager, to the marketing director of an environmentally conscious business with a proactive desire for a pioneering green image, their value is not entirely tied to the balance sheet.”























